Since US President Donald Trump announced his intention to impose massive tariffs on imports to America, the media has been writing their fingers to the bone, predicting the demise of American motorcycle brands, but so far nothing has changed.
Since spring, the demise of American motorcycle brands in Switzerland and Europe has seemed imminent, as a tariff war allegedly caused by the American president is raging. Who knows anything about tariffs on exported and imported products? No sooner had Donald Trump threatened high tariffs than there was talk of retaliatory tariffs on American products shipped to Europe and Switzerland. But, as so often happens, the end of the world was averted for the time being through talks. Europe struck a deal with Trump that will hit Europeans hard with a 15% tariff. Switzerland will now be punished with a 39% tariff on exports, but countermeasures don't seem to be in sight. The focus is on negotiating skills. How nice!
Anyone looking at Swiss motorcycle statistics today or keeping an eye on the price development of American motorcycle brands will notice that there has been no change in motorcycle prices or sales due to the new American tariff policy. The steady decline in sales at Harley-Davidson, currently at -7%, is self-inflicted and has nothing to do with Donald Trump's tariff policy. Anyone who wants to buy a Harley today will pay roughly the same prices as last year, tariff policy notwithstanding. Of course, a certain amount of nervousness is understandable, but experience shows that Donald Trump's announcements turn out to be much more bearable in reality than predicted. Rather, Trump's threats of high tariffs seem to be a proven way to remain popular and gain international attention. He delivers headline after headline and plays the role of strong man worldwide. Europe, with its women's club, has little to offer; it's a political laughingstock. Europe is no longer what it once was.
Wer heute auf die Motorradstatistik der Schweiz schaut oder die Preisentwicklung bei den amerikanischen Motorradmarken im Blick hat, wird feststellen, dass aufgrund der neuen amerikanischen Zollpolitik keine Änderung bei den Preisen der Motorräder oder beim Absatz zu verzeichnen ist. Der stete Absatzschwund bei Harley-Davidson, der aktuell bei -7% steht, ist hausgemacht und hat nichts mit der Zollpolitik von Donald Trump zu tun. Wer heute eine Harley kaufen will, zahlt in etwa die gleichen Preise wie letztes Jahr, Zollpolitik hin oder her. Natürlich ist eine gewisse Nervosität verständlich, aber erfahrungsgemäss werden die Ankündigungen von Donald Trump in der Realität viel verträglicher als angekündigt. Viel eher scheinen die Drohungen mit hohen Zöllen seitens Trumps ein probates, um populär zu bleiben und internationale Aufmerksamkeit zu gewinnen. Er liefert Schlagzeile um Schlagzeile und spielt weltweit den starken Mann. Da hat Europa mit seinem Weiberverein wenig zu bieten, eine politische Lachnummer. Europa ist längst nicht mehr das, was es einst war.
Whether the tariffs will, in the long run, actually have a negative impact on the selling prices of American motorcycle brands is still highly doubtful. If Europeans weren't always guided by their fears, they would be more relaxed in their dealings with Donald Trump and would have a more confident demeanor. Europe's weakness vis-à-vis the US is Donald Trump's strength. For now, however, there is no horror scenario, despite the fact that many have been talking about it. Keep cool!
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